When 6m opens, it’s a hailstorm. Here is a spectrum snapshot of some massive signals from Japan, received on Norfolk.
JK1UNZ massive +29. JH7MEV +39 dB. That is close to 60dB over the noise floor.
Actually, probably even more because this WSJTx’s S/N limit in 3KHz bandwidth.
The lowest decoded signal on the spectrum is -11dB. Clearly, the difference between the strongest and weakest Japanese station is due to signal path / reflection / entry angle, not in output power or antenna gain.
The truth is, we are still unable to explain the very nature of 6m band openings. We do have some ideas, but trying to predict and opening in any direction with any certainty is impossible.
Being close to equator is beneficial, yet stations in the “golden belt” tend to over exaggerate the importance of high gain antenna systems.
I tend to believe that it is all about the ‘quality of the reflector up in the sky’ and geometry, rather than gain and power.